Un rapport juge possible une sortie organisée des groupes paramilitaires nord-irlandais

A Dutch conflict specialist found real appetite for talks among loyalist and republican groups, but warns the chance to act could fade if governments wait.

By Ellis Marwood

Published 20 October 2026 4 min read

Un rapport juge possible une sortie organisée des groupes paramilitaires nord-irlandais — Illustrative photo. Hands clasped over documents on a wooden table, with a pen, a mug of tea and folders in view.

In brief

An independent report commissioned by both governments was published on Tuesday 13 October 2026.
It proposes a formal transition mechanism for loyalist and republican groups, with no financial rewards for taking part.
Northern Ireland secretary Chris Bryant will consult Dublin before responding.
Justice minister Naomi Long has warned engagement risks lending the groups legitimacy.

The British and Irish governments should open talks with Northern Ireland’s paramilitary groups aimed at their disbandment, because a chance now exists to set up a formal way out for them, according to an independent review. That chance, it says, depends on conditions being met, and it may not last.

Who wrote the report and what it recommends

The Independent Report on Paramilitary Group Transition to Disbandment was jointly commissioned by London and Dublin and released on Tuesday, as The Guardian reported on 13 October 2026. Its author is Fleur Ravensbergen, a Dutch specialist in conflict resolution who lectures on conflict resolution and governance at the University of Amsterdam. Presenting her findings in Belfast, she argued that the case for a structured process covering both loyalist and republican organisations was strong enough to pursue.

“I have concluded that there is sufficient merit in and support for a formal process of paramilitary group transition.”

Fleur Ravensbergen, author of the report

The document names no individuals and no specific organisations. Its conversations with participants took place in confidence, which is why the groups involved remain unidentified.

Why the groups never went away

When the Good Friday agreement was signed in 1998, the expectation was that paramilitary organisations would wither. Some did not. Instead, several turned into profitable operations built on drug dealing, extortion and coercive control over the people around them.

The report stresses that the picture is uneven. How much sway these organisations hold differs widely from one group to another, between communities and across regions, yet leftover structures are still inflicting damage in certain neighbourhoods.

Two people at a wooden table write notes on papers and a clipboard, with yellow envelopes, a tablet, notebooks and cups of coffee around them. — Participants at a table take notes on paper during a meeting, with envelopes, a tablet, notebooks and coffee cups in front of them. Photo: Sora Shimazaki / Pexels

Ravensbergen’s year-long scoping exercise found what she described as “significant willingness to engage” among paramilitaries. The word disbandment itself drew little enthusiasm as the end goal, she said, but resistance seemed to centre on the label rather than on what a transition ought to deliver. In her view, settling on a process matters more than the vocabulary used to describe its end point.

The conditions attached to any transition

The proposed mechanism comes with clear terms set out by the report and its author:

No payment for participation: groups should receive no financial reward for joining the process.
Checks on progress: monitoring and verification must be credible.
Policing in parallel: law enforcement has to remain robust throughout.
A defined timeframe: the process should be structured and time-bound.

Ravensbergen weighed this against doing nothing. Leaving paramilitary structures in place, allowing continued drift and risking unmanaged fragmentation carry greater dangers, she said, than attempting an organised transition. “Inaction is not a neutral option,” she added, warning that the opening identified in her consultations could narrow as time passes.

A cautious government and a sceptical minister

The proposal is not yet policy. Neither government has announced a decision or a timetable.

Chris Bryant, the Northern Ireland secretary, thanked Ravensbergen and said the government was committed to ending paramilitarism. “Their continued influence is a stain on our collective conscience,” he said. He will study the report and consult authorities in Dublin before replying, noting that “the implementation of any process will face challenges and will need the support from across the political community in Northern Ireland.”

Naomi Long, Northern Ireland’s justice minister and an Alliance party member, objected last year when Ravensbergen was appointed as interlocutor, arguing that dealing with paramilitaries and criminal gangs could give them a veneer of legitimacy. “The idea that paramilitary groups can transition into law-abiding entities has long since moved beyond the point of credibility,” she said at the time.

The review’s scope is deliberately narrow. Asked about the recent confrontation between the Orange Order and nationalist residents on the Garvaghy Road in Portadown, which followed Bryant’s Drumcree parade ban, Ravensbergen declined to comment, saying the dispute fell outside her remit.

Photo: cottonbro studio / Pexels